Barack to trump Bradley

With so much recent attention on Joe, is Bradley no longer the protagonist of the 2008 election season?

For months, politicos have been weighing the likelihood of a victory for Senator Obama with the ultimate impact of the “Bradley effect.” With or without Bradley, a strong tie between young people and the Democratic Party will counteract any damaging effect to Obama on Election Day. Since 1990, Republicans have lost their connection to the young, and the problem gets worse with every passing election. Today's twentysomethings are the most anti-Republican age group in the electorate and they are voting in numbers not seen since 1972 – when the voting age was raised to 18.

Ever since former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the California gubernatorial election in 1982, African American political candidates have worked against an alleged fatal tendency called the “Bradley effect.” Although polls showed Bradley ahead of his opponent, George Deukmejian (by as many as seven points), Bradley actually coughed up his lead on Election Day. Expected voters had earlier admitted to that they were willing to vote for an African American candidate. On Election Day, however, they seemingly did not follow through on this commitment. According to some, voters did not want to initially appear socially intolerant in front of pollsters. Although Obama is also leading in the polls, the supposed “Bradley effect” will prove little consequence on the outcome for this Democratic candidate.

To start, polling numbers from the primaries suggested no presence of a Bradley Effect. Although results of the New Hampshire primary scared some cynics, pundits forget that a lot more than skin color lost Bradley the governorship. While the privacy of the voting booth could change opinion, the sweeping excitement for an African American candidate seem likely to outweigh any skittish voters.

For this election, let’s consider a counter-effect, and that is the “David, Jeff, Amber or effect.” Fill in the blank with the name of any young person in America. Across the nation, circles of students and young professionals “like his young appeal.” While in the 1980s, first Ronald Reagan and then George H.W. Bush won first-time voters and under-29 voters by big margins, the makeup is different post millennium. Today, plenty of young people see beyond racial lines and take into account other factors in voting for a presidential candidate. A New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll from 2007 found young Americans (between the ages of 17 and 29) more open to left leaning campaigns, such as universal health care, legalization of gay marriage, and a withdrawal from Iraq.

This may finally be the year for young people to stun the political community and vote. Obama's strength in the caucuses and primaries were one place this was made apparent. And in a general election, this might even be more pronounced. Let’s hope that the only Bradley to affect the November 4 election will be the one who’s name appears in the rolls alongside David, Jeff and Amber.